Good News! Inflation Rate Drops To 11.37% In January – NBS

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The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 11.37 percent (year-on-year) in January 2019. This is 0.07 percent points lower than the rate recorded in December 2018 (11.44) percent.

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.74 percent in January 2019, same rate as was recorded in December 2018 (0.74) percent.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending January 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.80 percent, showing 0.3 percent point from 12.10 percent recorded in December 2018.

The urban inflation rate increased by 11.66 percent (year-on-year) in January 2019 from 11.73 percent recorded in December 2018, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.11 percent in January 2019 from 11.18 percent in December 2018.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.77 percent in January 2019, up by 0.01 from 0.76 percent recorded in December 2018, while the rural index also rose by 0.71 percent in January 2019, down by 0.01 percent from the rate recorded in December 2018 (0.72) percent.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 12.20 percent in January 2019. This is less than 12.51 percent reported in December 2018, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2019 is 11.46 percent compared to 11.75 percent recorded in December 2018.

Food Index

The composite food index rose by 13.51 percent in January 2019 compared to 13.56 percent in December 2018.

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This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Fish, Bread and cereals, Vegetables, Meat, Fruits, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, oils and fats, soft drinks.

On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.83 percent in January 2019, up by 0.02 percent points from 0.81 percent recorded in December 2018.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending January 2019 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.93 percent, 0.42 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2018 (14.35) percent.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The All items less farm produce’’ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.9 percent in January 2019, up by 0.1 percent when compared with 9.8 percent recorded in December 2018.

On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.81 percent in January 2019. This was up by 0.31 percent when compared with 0.50 percent recorded in December 2018.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Domestic services and household services, Tobacco, major household appliances whether electronic or not, Medical and Dental services, Garments, Narcotics, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Carpet and other floorings.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 10.34 percent for the twelve-month period ending January 2019; this is 0.17 percent points lower than 10.51 percent recorded in December 2018.

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State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items Inflation

In January 2019, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (14.64%), Bauchi (13.79%) and Jigawa (13.17%), while Kwara (9.28%) Cross River (9.24%) and Ogun (9.01%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis however, January 2019 all items inflation was highest in Delta (1.66%), Ondo (1.55%), and Borno (1.44%), while Ekiti, Nasarawa and Osun recorded negative inflation or price deflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in January 2019.

Food Inflation

In January 2019, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (16.45%), Delta (16.27%) and Ondo (15.63%), while Plateau (11.83%), Enugu (11.64%) and Ogun (10.99%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation.

On month on month basis however, January 2019 food inflation was highest in Delta (2.73%), Kwara (2.50%) and Ondo (2.22%), while Anambra, Ekiti, Enugu, Imo, Nasarawa, Osun and Zamfara all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in January 2019.


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